Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Serious Barriers in the Selection Process
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.